Monthly Highlights

Climate in China

During March 2009, monthly mean surface air temperatures were higher than  normal in most China, with 2-4above normal in western and northeastern Northwest China, western North China and western Inner Mongolia, with the exception of  1-2 below normal in most Heilongjiang and locations in eastern Inner Mongolia.

For the month, precipitations were observed 30-200% more than normal in northern Xinjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Northeast China, most central and southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, eastern North China, eastern Huanghuai, southern Guizhou, central South China, with over 200% more than normal in eastern Inner Mongolia and northern Northeast China. Meanwhile, precipitations were observed 30-80% less than normal in central and southern Xinjiang, western and parts of central eastern Inner Mongolia, southern Northeast China, western North China, western Huanghuai, regions in lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley, western Sichuan, most Yunnan, western and southeastern Tibet, locations in central Tibet, with no precipitation in central and southern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia and parts of Tibet.

 

Climate in the World

During March 2009, temperatures were 2-4 above normal in most central and western Asia and parts of northeastern Asia, parts of northwestern and eastern Africa, locations in southern North America, parts of southern South America and parts of central northern Australia, with temperatures at least 4-8 above normal in northeastern Russia, western Central Asia and locations in western Africa. Meanwhile, temperatures were over 1 below normal in central northern and southeastern Russia, northeastern East Asia, northwestern and parts of northeastern North America, parts of northwestern South America, with temperatures over 4 below normal in locations of central and northern Russia and locations of northwestern North America.

For the month, precipitations were at least 50% more than normal in most northeastern Asia, parts of Central Asia, central southern Russia and locations in western Russia, northwestern South Asia and most Indo-China Peninsulaparts of southern Europe, parts of western Africa, most of northern North America and northern South America, with precipitations over 200% more than normal in northeastern Asia and parts of northern North America. Meanwhile, precipitations were observed over 50% less than normal in central northern and parts of eastern Russia, northwestern and locations in southern East Asia, most West Asia and locations in South Asia, western Europe and locations in northern Europe, parts of northern and eastern Africa, parts of southwestern and northeastern North America, parts of central-southern South America and most Australia, with no precipitations in locations.

 

General Circulation Features

Northern Hemisphere: During March 2009, the mean 500hPa geopotential height field exhibited a 4-wave pattern at the mid-high latitudes. In the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly field, positive anomalies above 4 dam covered regions from eastern Russia to most of the North Pacific Ocean, most southeastern North America, regions from northeastern Canada to southern Greenland Island, parts of the northern North Atlantic Ocean, most Central Asia, with central values above 16 dam over the central North Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, negative anomalies below -4 dam covered regions from southeastern Europe to northern West Asia, locations in central-southern Russia, most northwestern North America. For the month, the subtropical high over the West Pacific was slightly smaller and weaker, and its location was slightly westward than normal.

Southern Hemisphere: For the month, in the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly field, positive anomalies above 4 dam covered parts of the South Pacific Ocean south to 20°S and parts of the South Atlantic Ocean south to 40°S, with central values above 8 dam over parts of the southwestern South Pacific Ocean nearby 60°S. Meanwhile, negative anomalies below -4 dam covered regions from the southeastern Pacific Ocean south to 40°S to parts of the Polar Regions, with central values below -8 dam.

Tropical Features

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): During March, negative SST anomalies dominated most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and positive SST anomalies persisted in the western equatorial Pacific. However, the negative SST anomalies weakened obviously as compared with last month. Furthermore, in March, indices of NINO 1+2, NINO 3, NINO 4, NINO 3.4 and NINO Z were -0.1-0.7℃,-0.3, -0.5and -0.5. 

Subsurface Temperatures: During March, comparing with last month, anomalously cold subsurface water further weakened in the central equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, anomalously warm subsurface water in the western equatorial Pacific extended eastward obviously.

Warm Pools: During March, both the area and intensity of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean warm pool were above normal.

Wind FieldFor the month, at lower troposphere (850hPa), easterly anomalies prevailed over the central Pacific with central values over 6m/s, westerly anomalies covered the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. At upper troposphere (200hPa), westerly anomalies covered most of the equatorial Pacific.

Southern Oscillation: For the month, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 0.2, with a drop of 1.2 from last month.

Convections over the Tropics: During March, the anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the equatorial Pacific showed that the convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific, and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific. In the lower troposphere (850hPa) divergent wind field, a convergent center was near 150ºE, 5ºS, and a divergent center was near 110ºW, 5ºS. At upper troposphere (200hPa), the corresponding divergent center was near 170ºE, 15ºS, and the convergent center was near 100ºW, 5ºS.

ENSO Monitoring and outlook

During March, atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific still maintained La Nina status but weakened obviously as compared with last month. Recent monitoring showed that the negative SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to weaken along with eastward extending of the anomalously warm subsurface water in the western equatorial Pacific and weakening of the anomalously cold subsurface water in the central equatorial Pacific. Based on a majority of the model forecasts, the negative SST anomalies in central and eastern equatorial Pacific will weaken into neutral condition in the coming 1-3 months.

Based on monitoring of recent atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific and predictions of statistical and dynamic models, the ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to maintain during the following 1-3 months.