秋季北极海冰对我国冬季气温的影响

影响机制一

影响机制二

注释：西伯利亚高压型（SH）是冬季东亚地区海平面气压场变化的第一个模态（解释方差：50%）。
计算方法：去掉线性趋势后的1979-2013年的东亚地区（30-70°N,80-120°E）冬季DJF平均海平面气压场的EOF第一个模态。(Wu et al., 2015)

影响机制三

注释：亚洲-北极环流型（AA）是冬季东亚地区海平面气压场变化的第二个模态（解释方差：26%）。
计算方法：去掉线性趋势后的1979-2013年的东亚地区（30-70°N,80-120°E）冬季DJF平均海平面气压场的EOF第二个模态。(Wu et al., 2015)

参考文献

Chen, W., X. Lan, L. Wang, and Y. Ma, 2013: The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chin. Sci. Bull, 58, 634-641.
Chen, Z., R. Wu, and W. Chen, 2014: Impacts of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Changes on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability. J. Climate., 27, 5433-5450.
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503.
Garcia-Serrano, J., and C. Frankignoul, 2014: High predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate from cryospheric variability. Nature Geosci, 7, 1?6, doi:doi:10.1038/ngeo2118.
Honda, M., J.Inoue, and S.Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36 (8), L08707.
Li, F., and H. Wang, 2012: Autumn Sea Ice Cover, Winter Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and Winter Precipitation in Eurasia. J. Climate., 26, 3968-3981.
Liu, J., J. A. Curry, H. Wang, M. Song, and R. M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 4074-4079.
Wu, B., J. Su, and R. DArrigo, 2015: Patterns of asian winter climate variability and links to arctic sea ice. J. Climate., 28, 6841-6858.

联系人：聂羽 nieyu@cma.gov.cn 010-58994202
资助项目：北极关键区海冰变化及其在气候监测中的应用（CCSF201502）
资助类别：中国气象局气候变化专项
项目负责人：马丽娟 李多